Back in September 2003 I flew on Concorde from Heathrow to JFK just a month before the iconic aircraft ceased commercial service.
And whilst I've flown on Boeing 747-400s over half a dozen times, I've never had the pleasure of flying on the final version of the Queen of the Skies!
Sadly there's only a handful of airlines which fly the Boeing 747 (either 400 or 8i) with the number gradually reducing year by year. Many of the B747s are flown by cargo airlines. And most of the remaining passenger aircraft are exclusively flown on long haul routes.
Air China's fleet of four B747-400 and five B747-8s do still get used on short haul flights.
So last year I booked a ticket on CA1557 from PEK to SHA in the hopes of getting a ride on the scheduled B787-8i, well aware that aircraft swaps regularly happen. Sadly an aircraft swap did indeed happen, and I ended up on an old Airbus A330.
Chastened by the the experience, I started to build a spreadsheet of when the B747-8i did actually operate CA1557 to see if I could establish any patterns.
With 15 months of data, the headline is that you have less than a 1 in 3 chance of riding a Queen if you book a random CA1557.
For those lucky enough to travel on the week commencing 14th April 2025 they had a 5 in 7 chance of a B747-8i, otherwise the best weeks had a 4 in 7 chance.
Sunday was the best day of the week with more than a 1 in 2 chance last year, with Wednesday having just under a 1 in 2 chance.
Spring and Summer Sundays
Between the end of March and the end of August, 20 out of 23 Sundays saw a B747-8i operating the flight. Of the three Sundays where a smaller plane operated, two of the following Monday saw the Queen in service.
Conclusions
For the best chance of catching a ride on a B747-8i you really need a flexible ticket, so that once an aircraft has been allocated a couple of days in advance, you can swap your flight if needed.
Book a seat on CA1557 on a Spring or Summer Sunday to give yourself the best chance of success.
Let me know if you find any other short haul flights with a decent chance of a B747-8i.
