British Airways peak analysis - 2027 edition

 

Head for Points recently published the Peak dates for Avios redemptions on British Airways in 2027, so following my analysis last year, and the previous year, it only feels right to update my spreadsheet and bash out some analysis!

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138 days in 2027 attract the higher rate of Avios - this is the lowest number in the past five years, when BA shifted to its current peak pattern, beating the previous best by a single day.

2025  139

2026  142

2027  138

Eagle eyed viewers may note that the 2026 total has dropped by one since last year's analysis - this is due to 1st April 2026 being swapped to off peak.

Day by Day three things I pray ...

To avoid travelling on Fridays, Saturdays or Sundays!

Weekends continue to be more peaky than mid week, but 2027 Saturdays drop to 29 peak - with three more off peaks than 2026.  Two more Sundays in 2027 are classified as off peak, with Mondays picking up the slack, showing an increase of two to 17.

Midweek peakiness shifts around with Tuesdays and Wednesdays both dropping by two, and Thursdays doing the heavy lifting - up to Monday levels at 17 peak days.

Hazy Shade of Winter

Summer is when airlines make their money ... and 2027 is no different.  August continues to be peak peak, with all 31 days attracting top Avios.  July drops by three days after the 2026 high (but still significantly higher than 2023 & 2024), with June dropping by two and September by one.

May is the new June with a six day drop after the 2026 high.  February and October both gain three peak days in 2027 compared with 2026.  Other months change by just a single day.

Look Around

A four day reduction in peak days in 2027 over 2026 is welcome.

Don't forget that other airlines using Avios use very different peak profiles.

So get your skates on and benefit from the six day reduction in May peakiness on British Airways in 2027.

British Airways CEO fireside chat

In April 2019 the then British Airways chief executive Alex Cruz gave a talk at the Royal Aeronautical Society's Heathrow Branch, and yesterday it was the turn of the current CEO Sean Doyle to give us his views.

In 2019 I left BA's hq with the impression that Cruz's primary mission was to tell you how great he was - that he deserved "both parachutes" in Father Ted terms!

I left the Waterside building yesterday with the impression that Sean Doyle is pretty much the opposite of Alex Cruz on that front.  Sean even talked about the need to be yourself and that anything else would be seen as "fake" (high viz jacket reference?).  He also talked about the need to avoid obsessing over networking, and just get on and do your job well.

Fireside Chat

Whereas Alex Cruz gave a structured talk, Sean Doyle chatted to Jonathon Counsell (an IAG director) so unfortunately a lot of the evening was spent listening to Counsell's views rather than Sean's.  It almost seemed like Jonathon thought that he should be running British Airways!

Fleet News

After an initial run through the BA financials (very healthy), we got to hear about some of the upcoming aircraft changes.  New First Class cabins on the A380 will be coming "later this year".  At the same time the A380s will get the Club Suite during their D-Checks starting from mid Summer.  Doyle did admit that BA left the old ying-yang seats without all aisle access on planes "probably too long".  Sean thinks that the current fleet of 12 A380s is probably about right, and has no plans to buy any extra.

He pointed to the B777-9 order as sort of replacing the retired B747s.  And the ordered A350-1000s with higher gross take off weight as replacing the older B777s in the current fleet.

Sean highlighted that the higher efficiencies of modern engines come with trade offs - and that the lower "time on wing" of the B787 engines illustrates this.  He pointed out that B787 engine problems had plagued the type for around half of their operational lives!

Doyle doesn't think the A321XLR is right for BA's business.  Neither did he sound optimistic about a future supersonic aircraft in the BA fleet.  He did talk about the BA fleet shifting towards more long haul aircraft with the suggestion that the current fleet is too heavily weighted towards short haul.

And whilst British Airways will continue to launch the odd new US route, it sounded like he thinks they've almost maxed out on the USA.  He specifically stated that he expected to open up "a bit more rest of the world and Asia" routes as the fleet rebalanced towards long haul.

He is also excited about the introduction of Starlink across the fleet which will mostly happen in the second half of this year and early next year.  He wouldn't give an exact date but said he expected the first BA aircraft with Starlink (which he described as a "game changer") imminently.

BA Operations

Doyle repeatedly used the phrase "Culture eats Strategy for breakfast" as he emphasised the need for people to work together and to focus on execution.  He explained the dramatic improvement in on time departures (up 20 percentage points in two years from a historic low) as partly being due to organising staff into "zone" teams and making sure everybody knew who their manager was.

He admitted that coming out of the pandemic the airline didn't have enough staff and didn't have enough experience and that their IT systems were "fragile".  He repeated a journalist's report that he had been apologising even more than Boris Johnson for pandemic woes.  But he pointed out that the day after the Heathrow fire shutdown in March 2025, the airline ran 94% of their schedule operation and achieved an 88% punctuality rate - despite planes and people being in the wrong places.

Frequent Flyers

Despite receiving 60 questions from the audience in advance of the event, Counsell only asked a handful, including just one on the changes to BA's frequent flyer scheme.  Doyle defended the changes claiming that rewarding spend rather than flying was how airlines would have setup their schemes if they had the technology originally.  And he insisted this is the way that the airline industry is moving, pointing out that all three big US carriers have already made the change.

Doyle also claimed that high spending, but low frequency travellers, not getting top tier status was "starting to be a problem", and claimed that the changes were only fair.  He also outlined the additional opportunities to earn status points through holiday purchases, credit card spend etc.  He expects to see Gold member numbers increase, and a reduction in Silver and Bronze - but admitted there would be "churn" across all tiers.

Sean also stated that the swap to awarding Avios points based on revenue spend had resulted in additional Avios being issued.

IT

Doyle admitted that the British Airways app had fallen behind expected industry levels.  And he revealed that the brand new app is currently on it's 11th trial version.  He stated it will (finally) be released "by the Summer" and expects the user experience to be much better very quickly once it's released.  In contrast Virgin Atlantic has released their app with initially very limited improvements. 

Sean said that last September he turned off the power to the old servers in BA's Cranebank building, and that all their data in now in the Cloud.  He also mentioned that British Airways IT services are now back in house, and praised their IT director.

Heathrow 3rd Runway

Doyle emphasised that UK based airlines employ eight times the number of staff on home soil than foreign airlines operating out of UK airports.  He is making a pitch for a "fair share" of additional slots that a third runway at Heathrow would bring.

He also pointed to the project risks involved in rerouting the M25 and the phenomenal costs, highlighting how much cheaper a second runway at Gatwick will be, and talked about passenger fees approaching £60 per person.

Sean also made the point that additional flights from Heathrow would mean chasing after connecting and more price conscious flyers - which would make an increase in passenger fees after a £49bn new runway even more of a problem.

Why Ireland?

As a closing question Counsell asked Doyle why so many Irish people lead airlines!  Sean pointed to Irish people needing / loving to travel and how Willie Walsh and Alan Joyce had broken the glass ceiling.  He even sounded positive about Michael O'Leary and respected his obsession with cost control. Earlier in the evening Doyle recounted that his first interview at British Airways in 1998 included a flight from Ireland to Stansted ... on Ryanair!

British Airways Avios needed per Mile Flown - Business Class

Late last year British Airways increased the number of Avios required for redemption flights.

Sydney went from 145,000 Avios to 159,500 Avios

Santiago, Buenos Aires & Singapore went from 110,000 Avios to 121,000 Avios

Tokyo, Mauritius, HK, Brazil & Shanghai went from 100,000 Avios to 110,000 Avios

India, most of the Americas, South Africa & Nairobi went from 90,000 Avios to 99,000 Avios

Pakistan, East Americas, Middle East, Lagos & Accra went from 80,000 Avios to 88,000 Avios

Abuja & Jeddah went from 70,000 Avios to 77,000 Avios

Head for Points today updated their table of Avios needed per Mile flown in Business Class - so it was a good reminder to update the graph!

With the increase being roughly 10% across the board, the relative Avios per Mile required for different destinations hasn't changed.  It is a useful reminder that generally the further you fly, the better the use of Avios.  And that Riyadh & Lagos are poor redemptions in terms of miles flown.

Of course, the real value is comparing Avios redemptions with cash fares!

British Airways Avios Peak date analysis - 2025 & 2026 edition

British Airways charge a different number of Avios frequent flyer points for reward flights to encourage members to use their points during Off Peak times.

Each year they tweak the mix of Peak and Off Peak dates slightly - so after Head for Points recently published the 2025 and 2026 calendars, it's time to dive in and have a look.

First off - the headline number of peak days - holding steady in 2025, but increasing by 3% in 2026.

2023  139 days

2024  139 days

2025  139 days

2026  143 days

Let's take a look at the month by month breakdown of Peak days

Between January and April there aren't any big changes for 2025 and 2026, but May sees some inflation in Peak days both in 2025 and in 2026.  July and August also see inflation with the former gaining 6 days over two years, and the latter becoming an Off Peak free zone in 2026.

Whilst September and October are largely in line with prior years, November gains some Peak days whilst December loses some Peak days.

Next let's take a look at a breakdown by weekday of the Peak days

Mondays are a good day to travel in 2026 - with the lowest ever number of Peak days.

BA are now reversing the trend of recent years and doubling the number of Peak Tuesdays between 2024 and 2026.

Wednesdays and Thursdays see a slight reduction in Peak days.

Fridays are a bad day to travel in 2026 - with the highest ever number of Peak days.

Saturdays and Sunday continue the 2024 trend with nearly two thirds of each treated as Peak.

Conclusion

Whilst 2025 generally follows the pattern from 2024 - there are some big changes in 2026.

2026 Losers - Tuesday & Friday travellers and July & August travellers

2026 Winners - Monday travellers and January & April travellers - so plan your weekend breaks to travel on a Monday!

Don't Forget

This analysis only applies to British Airways - Aer Lingus and Iberia each have different dates - check Head for Points for each of their Peak calendars.

And if you book an Aer Lingus or Iberia redemption on the British Airways website - don't expect BA.com Off Peak badges to be correct.

London to Zagreb for Christmas 2024

After looking at the various options from Dublin to Zagreb - it's time to also consider London to Zagreb ...

Ryanair have some very competitive flights - especially on the evening of Sunday 22nd December

A cabin wheelie on this flight costs £15.50 and a hold bag costs £27

British Airways fares are considerably more expensive - with a hold bad costing £21 extra

Unfortunately (but unsurprisingly) there are no BA reward flights available in the week before Christmas

KLM have plenty of options from either Heathrow of London City airport - at reasonable prices

Flights to Vienna are available for around £144 on Sunday 22nd December with Wizz including a 20kg hold bag (which is only £4 more than a cabin wheelie)

And British Airways has reward seats available in Business Class on Monday 23rd for the equivalent of around £180 - which includes a hold bag

This flights would arrive in time to take the six hour train to Zagreb

Another option is to fly to Venice - get the bus into the train station, and the train to Trieste airport.  There are no direct flights from London to Trieste on 21st or 22nd December 2024.

British Airways - Avios per Mile for Business Class reward flights

Last February we created a graph looking at British Airway Avios redemptions.

Recently three mid haul routes have swapped from Long Haul widebody aircraft (or specially configured Mid Haul aeroplanes) to Short Haul single aisle aircraft - with "european" business class.  This means that where you were previously got a lovely lie flat bed or a proper business seat - now you just get a better meal and an empty middle seat!

Sensibly BA have reduced the number of Avios required for these three mid haul destinations so reflect the reduction in service.

Previously at 70,000 Avios for a business class redemption Amman, Cairo & Tel Aviv were by far the worst use of Avios (on a mile flown basis) at over 30 Avios per mile - now at 24,250 Avios one way they are some of the best at around 11 Avios per mile flown.

Obviously it's a fundamentally different product that you're buying now with just a standard seat.

As a point of comparison a reward flight from Heathrow to Dublin at 9,750 Avios costs you nearly 35 Avios per mile flown.

So the new Avios reward level of 24,250 Avios for a mid haul Business Class flight looks like a good deal - now you just need to compare it with cash flights to see if it's good value!

Qatar Airways - best use of Avios

Last year I looked at the best use of Avios in terms of miles flown for Business Class redemptions on British Airways flights.

This week Head for Points created a table of Qatar Airways redemptions, showing the Avios required for flights from London - so I thought it was time to dig out last year's spreadsheet!

The bottom line is that the further you fly, the better value the redemption, purely on a miles per Avios basis - rather than looking at the cost of cash fares.  The lower on the graph, the better the value.

Auckland and Qatar's four Australian destinations are your best options - all requiring 90,000 avios for a single redemption flight in Business Class.

Bali, Davao and Jakarta are the best options if you've got 80,000 avios available.  But all the redemptions at this level are good value.

Singapore and Kuala Lumpar are great value for 75,000 avios - but this is where things get complicated.  The six worst redemptions at this level on the graph are all in West Africa - where the backtracking element makes them bad value.  There's also three destinations in Morocco, as well as Algiers, which are so poor value that they broke the graph and aren't displayed!

At the 65,000 avios level - Colombo is the best value, and I'd be happy with any of the redemptions.  The one exception is Tunis - which again is such awful value that it's off the top of the graph.

Goa is the best value redemption at the 55,000 avios level.  The four poor value destinations on the graph are Alexandria, Beirut, Cairo and Amman.

Salalah is your top value 45,000 avios redemption - but all of destinations at this level are reasonable.

It seems slightly strange that a Doha redemption at 43,000 avios ends up worse than lots of other cities - but it's still reasonable.

Compared to the British Airways graph, the Qatar Airways graph shows much more overlap between different redemption levels.  There are good value redemption destinations at every level of the Qatar Airways reward chart.

Just make sure you avoid the five destinations which are truly awful value for redemptions!

Aer Lingus redemption flights - Avios.com closing down

Avios.com used to be your go-to site for making Aer Lingus redemption bookings.

EI redemption flights are now usually available on BA.com but the "taxes & fees" are often higher on the BA website - and sometimes BA have less redemption seats available.

Avios.com will soon be closing down - and Aer Lingus redemptions will then be bookable on the Aer Lingus website.

Before the Avios.com closure happens I want to look at redemption prices so that we can compare and contrast once AerLingus.com functionality opens up.

For this analysis I'm using the London Heathrow to Ireland West Airport at Knock route - Aer Lingus is the only airline that flies LHR-NOC

If you book a single LHR - NOC it's 4,000 avios + £27.74 on Avios.com

And it's 4,000 avios + £50.74 on BA.com

If you book a single NOC - LHR it's 4,000 avios + £14.50 on Avios.com

And it's 4,000 avios + £35.90 on BA.com

(all passengers pay 10 euro "development fee" on departure)

The price of return redemptions on Avios.com is the same as booking two singles.

The price of return redemptions on BA is almost the same as booking two singles.

Avios.com redemptions come with one free hold bag, so I've never found a reason to pay the higher fees on BA.com

The Avios.com website is pretty awful, and sometimes Amex cards aren't accepted, but if the saving is significant I usually manage to use it

Hopefully redemptions on AerLingus.com will price the same as Avios.com rather than BA.com

  

Dublin to Shanghai - part deux

I wrote previously about looking for flights to Shanghai that were cancellable for a reasonable fee, as the Chinese visa had not been obtained.

Now that the Chinese visa has been obtained, life is simpler ... and we're just looking for the usual price / timing / routing matrix!

Starting off with the basic Skyscanner query - departing at the start of February, and returning at the end of March ...

Luckily the prices have barely increase in the six weeks since we last looked

British Airways has the eight cheapest combinations - and the departure and connection timings of the BA flights look pretty good.

One aspect which complicates the comparison is that some airlines include a hold bag in their basic fee (mostly Middle East airlines) whilst most of the European airlines do not.  And then you need to work out whether it's better to add a bag separately, or accept the airline's "standard" fare.  Thankfully BA make it pretty simple - 35 euro for a bag on the way out and 34 euro for a bag on the way back, and no bundling / unbundling calculations to work out.

This gives a grand total of 577 euro for the return flights including one hold bag.

577 euro is actually cheaper than any other airline on the original Skyscanner list - so we don't have to go and see what their baggage fees are!

Looking at departures within a few days of the original dates - all the best options are still British Airways, which makes the analysis straightforward.

On the outbound journey the last few days in January are priced the same as the 1st February

On the inbound journey there are options either side of 31st March with the same price

On the BA website they offer both Aer Lingus and British Airways flights for the Dublin to Heathrow legs - but since Aer Lingus use a different terminal, it's definitely worth selecting the BA flights so that the connection between the two flights is within the same terminal.

And in the unlikely event of missing the outbound connection - China Eastern have both a mid afternoon and an evening departure from Heathrow, so I would expect BA to use one of them.  Or a night in a Heathrow hotel isn't the worst thing that could happen!

Conclusion:  all the way with BA ... now just book your flights!

Dublin to Shanghai

I'm looking for a return flight from Dublin to Shanghai departing around Thursday 1st February and returning around Sunday 31st March.  Usually I'm not interested in the T&Cs - but on this occasion I may want some amount of flexibility.

First over to Skyscanner ... and British Airways has the cheapest fares for the exact dates - starting from 497 euro (travel agent) ... and 504 euro directly from BA without hold luggage ... or 573 euro with one hold bag

Excluding BA the next cheapest prices are KLM and Air France

And excluding BA, KLM and Air France - the next options are with Virgin Atlantic

Looking one day either side of the original dates on Skyscanner doesn't result in any cheaper flights

Now moving to Kayak - their date matrix shows that by chance, the original dates are actually the cheapest

Looking at these flights on the British Airways website and the fare conditions ... it appears there is no penalty to change the ticket (but of course the fare difference can be significant) especially close to departure.  No refunds are permitted on this fare - which is not ideal.

Taking the "Economy Flexible" option on the BA website - the price becomes a jaw dropping 4,436 euro

Looking at these flights in BA Premium Economy - they are still non refundable

Even in BA business class - the tickets are non refundable

So what about the KLM flights - the cheapest including hold luggage is 756 euro - considerably more expensive than British Airways.  This ticket can be changed (subject to fare difference) but is not refundable

There is a refundable option on these flights (cancel before first flight) - which costs a total of 906 euro including baggage fees.

With the refundable option being so much more expensive - it's then worth checking other airlines / online travel agents

Looking at Expedia - the original British Airways flights are available for a "no cancel fee" price of 745 euro (including baggage).  But if you go through to the booking T&Cs - it says there's a 204 euro cancellation fee - which doesn't give me great confidence in Expedia.

Usually we could try BA Holidays or Virgin Holidays to see what sort of flexible package was available - but sadly neither of them offer "holidays" to Shanghai

Looking at other airlines as well:

British Airways - cheapest including luggage 573 euro; refundable 4,436 euro

Virgin Atlantic - cheapest including luggage 592 euro; refundable fare 1,720 euro

KLM/AF - cheapest including luggage 756 euro; refundable 906 euro

SAS - cheapest including luggage 787 euro; refundable fare 987 euro

Etihad - cheapest including luggage 846 euro; mostly refundable fare 1,243 euro

Qatar - cheapest including luggage 863 euro; refundable 1,843 euro

Lufthansa - cheapest including luggage 894 euro; mostly refundable fare 1,143 euro

Turkish - cheapest including luggage 999 euro; mostly refundable fare 1,129 euro

Emirates - cheapest including luggage 1,129 euro - but this is actually mostly refundable

So the current best price for a refundable ticket is KLM/AirFrance for 906 euro

The next step is to phone up travel agents such as Trailfinders to see what sort of flexible fare types they have available.  And whether they are able to hold flights until after a visa application result is received.

Another option is to book a reward flight and cancel it for a 42 euro fee once the result of the visa application has been received - and book a cheap cash fare.

British Airways Avios Peak analysis - 2024 dates

Today Head for Points obtained the unreleased calendar of 2024 dates when British Airways are charging top dollar (Avios) for redemptions.

This has a big impact - for example an off peak redemption from London to Innsbruck is 4,750 avios (plus fees), whilst the same redemption on a peak day costs 5,250 avios (plus fees).

The first key take away is that the number of peak days in 2024 is identical to 2023 - so in that respect we're not getting screwed over by BA !

2020  138
2021  138
2022  140
2023  139
2024  139

For 2022 redemptions BA made a shift into reducing the number of peak days in Summer months, and this carrier through to 2023 redemptions.  This has mostly held for 2024 redemptions apart from a noticeable increase in August - back up to 27 peak days.

The other big change for 2024 is October - now just 5 days are classified as peak - the first time it's been in single digits.  April is also now a better time to redeem your avios, with just 11 peak dates.

For 2022 redemptions British Airways reduced the number of peak Wednesdays throughout the whole year, with Tuesdays gradually reducing across 2022 and 2023.  For 2024 there seems to have been a change of heart about Wednesdays - with a big jump in peak dates from 5 to 15.  Tuesdays are now the better time to use your avios - with just 5 peak Tuesdays throughout 2024.

You also have four more off peak Fridays in 2024 compared with 2023 redemptions.

Conclusion

The clear winner for 2024 are people who can redeem their Avios on a Tuesday and those redeeming during October.

The big loser for 2024 are people who want to redeem their Avios in August.

Caveat

Whilst this calendar applies to British Airways redemption flights, Aer Lingus and Iberia have their own calendars.  This causes problems for British Airways' shoddy IT on routes where both BA and EI fly - for example London to Dublin.

For example Friday 9th February is a BA peak date (school half term), but in the redemption screen under the date BA claim it's an off peak day - but the off peak badge is missing from the individual BA flights, and if you click through, you need 5,250 peak avios (instead of 4,750 off peak).

On routes which are only flown by Aer Lingus the off peak sticker is missing from the dates, but is correctly displayed on the individual flights.

On the London to Madrid route the 9th February does have an off peak sticker - but both BA and IB are charging peak avios.

So for these routes, you need to ignore the claim under the date, and just look at the individual flights.  Your mileage may (literally) vary!

British Airways Airbus A380 maintenance downtime

British Airways received the first of their magnificent Airbus A380s in July 2013

With just 12 aircraft purchased, British Airways always planned to contract out the A380 heavy maintenance - initially they were sent to Singapore, and later the contract was moved to Manila

The first of the maintenance flights started in June 2015 - these first checks were usually completed within a month

The second round of maintenance downtime started in March 2017 - and these trips were usually over two months, although the three newest aircraft were completed within a month

The third round of maintenance started in October 2018 - and these sessions usually took closer to three months, although the three newest aircraft were completed within two months

The fourth round of maintenance started in September 2021 - and aircraft were generally out in Manila over two months

The full list of movements can be found in this FlyerTalk forum thread

The question arose recently as to how many of the SuperJumbos were usually available to British Airways for revenue flights - so I decided to do some number crunching

This analysis looks at how many aircraft were available for the full month - often BA would send out one aircraft to Manila and a few days later bring back another - in this analysis that counts as two aircraft being unavailable during the month

When an aircraft left on the last day of a month or returned on the first day of a month, I've ignored it to keep the analysis relatively straightforward

This table shows that over the course of seven and a half years that British Airways have had on average 10.9 aircraft available for the whole month

Since the second round of maintenance checks started in March 2017 - in the following three and a half years (43 months) there were just five months where all 12 aircraft were available

With all the comings and goings it's sometimes easy to lose sight of the bigger picture - hopefully this gives an insight into the availability of A380s in the British Airways schedule

Avios Required per Mile Flown - Graph

Head for Points has an interesting post today about the number of Avios required for all British Airways long haul destinations compared to the number of miles flown.

HfP are using one way Club Class flights for this analysis.

I thought it would be interesting to graph the results to see what jumps out.

While Sydney is obviously in a league of its own - many of us don't have 145,000 Avios sitting around, or plan our travel 355 days in advance to grab a redemption flight to Australia.

Whilst Cape Town and Santiago are clearly the next best alternatives it's after that where it gets more interesting.

Yes the 110,000 and 100,000 redemptions offer good value, but actually the 90,000 redemptions are almost as good, and obviously more achievable for those of us with smaller Avios balances.

At the other end of the scale, the best redemption of 70,000 Avios (Abuja) is worse value than the worst redemption of 90,000 Avios (Charleston).  And Cincinnati is the only 80,000 redemption that stands out as being half decent value.

For me, the moral of the story is not to waste my Avios on 70k or 80k redemptions - longer is better when it comes to redeeming on long haul.

 

Avios Subscriptions - offer ends 30th April 2023

Yesterday British Airways announced a new Avios "Subscription" service

There are four different levels - and two different ways to pay - either an Annual payment or Monthly payments

Whilst it's clearly better value to make a one off Annual payment - I wanted to see just how big a difference it made ... so I ran the numbers ...

Wow - the difference really is huge - roughly 20% extra to pay by monthly instalments at each level

But the real shocker is that paying monthly for 200,000 Avios is 16% more expensive than making a one off payment for 20,000 Avios

So the moral of the story - if you do need some extra Avios, make a one off payment ... even though the Avios will still arrive month by month into your account

British Airways Avios Peak 2023 analysis

British Airways have now released their peak / off peak dates for 2023 - as covered on Head For Points

Last year I explained BA's big shift, away focusing their peak days around holiday months, to now focus on weekends in shoulder months - whilst keeping roughly the same number of peak days

For 2023 British Airways have continued the weekend (peak) / weekday (off peak) split

Firstly the total peak days peak year:

2020  138
2021  138
2022  140
2023  139

In a world of points inflation - there's nothing much to complain about here!

Now looking month by month - here is the confirmation that last year's move to reduce peak days in July & August, and shift them to the rest of the year, has been maintained

In 2023 most months only change by one or two days - with April being the only month to change by three days:

And then there's the day of the week view

Last year's shift towards more weekend days being peak continues - with 33 Sundays and 34 Saturdays in 2023 requiring extra Avios for redemptions

At the other end - just 8 Tuesdays and 5 Wednesdays in 2023 are classed as peak

Last year I concluded by saying:

So if you can fly midweek in the Summer, you should be happy with the 2022 British Airways Avios calendar

But if you like weekend flights, or getting away in June, then you need to budget for some extra Avios in 2022

That analysis holds for 2023 as well

Avios.com vs British Airways Executive Club

I've written before about the ever changing taxes/surcharges charged on Aer Lingus reward flights - and the difference between booking through British Airways Executive club telephone line, and using the Avios.com website.

I was just looking at a simple Heathrow to Dublin one way flight and phoned up BA to compare prices.  What's really weird is the structure of the Avios/price combination - BA's work in the opposite direction that Avios.com use.

For simplicity let's value each Avios at 1p

On Avios.com the Avios/price combinations are:

4,000 avios + £27.82

3,676 avios + £32.82

3,136 avios + £37.82

2,055 avios + £47.82

1,600 avios + £62.82

1,276 avios + £72.82

Using 1p per Avios value, the 4,000 avios option is the best, with the 2,054 avios option close behind.  The 1,276 avios option is by far the worst.

Assuming the British Airways telephone operator gave me the correct prices - their Avios/price combinations are:

4,000 avios + £40.33

3,676 avios + £43.08

3,136 avios + £47.08

2,055 avios + £55.33

1,600 avios + £60.33

1,276 avios + £65.33

Again using 1p per Avios value, the 2,054 avios option is the best, with the 1,600 avios option close behind.  The 4,000 avios option is the worst.

The best option on Avios.com is significantly cheaper than the best option that the British Airways call agent offered.

But if you only have 1,600 avios to use, then the best option is to book using a British Airways phone operator.

Whilst the Aer Lingus reward flights are still more expensive than the flat Reward Flight Saver option on BA reward flights - at least the Aer Lingus taxes/fees are cheaper than the £39 they were charging a few years ago!

Using a British Airways 2-4-1 voucher on a one way redemption

British Airways & American Express recently announced changes to their 2-4-1 vouchers triggered after the 1st September 2021.  Full details are on the Head for Points site for both the free Amex card and the paid for Amex card.

One aspect of the changes that I want to look at is the new option of starting a redemption outside the UK (currently all 2-4-1 redemptions must start in the UK).  And specifically using a voucher for a single redemption flight from a low fees point of departure (e.g. Brazil or Hong Kong) back to London.

Firstly let's look at a standard return redemption from London to Brazil during August (using peak redemption calculations)

LHR - GRU return

Economy  80,000 avios plus £200 per person

Premium Economy  120,000 avios plus £483 per person

Business  180,000 avios plus £586 per person

So a pair of Business class redemptions saves you 180,000 avios with a spend of £1,171 for taxes and FEES

Now let's assume you book a cash ticket from the UK to Brazil, and let's look at a single redemption flight from GRU to LHR

Economy  40,000 avios plus £8 per person

Premium Economy  60,000 avios plus £8 per person

Business  90,000 avios plus £8 per person

So a pair of Business class redemptions saves you 90,000 avios with a spend of £15 plus the cash fare from the UK to Brazil

To try and compare these options, let's assume you buy a one way cash ticket for £300 per person (and that you're happy to fly Economy on a day flight to Brazil)

So it's a choice between saving 180,000 avios and spending £1,171 on a return redemption or saving 90,000 avios and spending something like £615 on a single redemption

If you value avios at 1p, then a return redemption is generating a saving of £1,800 less £1,171 in fees - so a net saving of £629

A single redemption is generating a saving of £900 less £600 for the cash tickets and just £15 in fees - so a net saving of £285

Whilst the single redemption will have limited use (Brazil and Hong Kong routes only, and those willing to book single cash tickets), it may appeal to flyers who don't have 180,000 avios available for a return Business class redemption.  It may also be attractive to those who don't want to spend nearly £1,200 on a pair of return redemptions, when they could spend around half that on Economy outbound seats and Business class inbound seats.

  

British Airways Avios Peak calendar 2022 analysis

Like many frequent flyer programmes, Avios charges you different number of points to fly on different days - unpopular parts of the year less points, school holidays more points.

Head for Points recently published the Peak / Off Peak dates for 2022, so I thought it would be interesting to see how things have changed over the last few years.

This analysis is just based on the British Airways Peak / Off Peak calendar - there are different calendars for Iberia and Aer Lingus

Firstly the total number of Peak days in each of the three years

2020  137

2021  138

2022  140

Only a small increase in the number of Peak days each year - but as always, the devil is in the detail.

If you’re able to fly midweek, the number of peak days has reduced (2020, 2021, 2022)

Tuesday  12, 13, 11

Wednesday  15, 15, 5

Thursday  17, 15, 17

If you’re looking to have a long weekend, then Fridays and Mondays are pretty similar too

Friday  22, 24, 23

Monday  21, 23, 19

The big change is on weekends with a jump in the number of Peak days

64% of Saturdays and 60% of Sundays in 2022 counted as Peak

Saturday  25, 23, 34

Sunday  25, 25, 31

The other way the changes can impact you is if you like to use your Avios in particular months.  As Easter changes date each year, there’s often a shift between March and April, but this is how the whole year pans out across 2020, 2021, 2022

January  5, 6, 11

February  8, 8, 10

March  5, 6, 6

April  18, 18, 13

May  10, 5, 5

June  0, 3, 13

July  27, 27, 20

August  29, 29, 19

September  6, 6, 12

October  10, 11, 11

November  0, 0, 0

December  19, 19, 20

The months with the big increase in Peak dates are June (from 0 to 13), September (from 6 to 12) and January (from 5 to 11)

The big winners are July (from 27 to 20) and August (from 29 to 19)

CORRECTION: November has ZERO peak dates.  "Nov" is actually December in this table!  Apologies.

So if you can fly midweek in the Summer, you should be happy with the 2022 British Airways Avios calendar

But if you like weekend flights, or getting away in June, then you need to budget for some extra Avios in 2022.